Anda David, Mohamed Ali Marouani, Charbel Nahas et Björn Nilsson, “The Economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries. The case of Lebanon” (Working paper), 2018

In this article, we investigate the effects of a massive displacement of
workers from a war-torn economy on the economy of a neighboring
country. Applying a general equilibrium approach to the Lebanese
economy, we explore effects from various components of the crisis on the
labor market, the production apparatus, and macroeconomic indicators.
Along with previous literature, our findings suggest limited or no
adverse effects on high-skilled native workers, but a negative impact on
the most vulnerable Lebanese workers is found. When aid takes the form
of investment subsidies, significantly better growth and labor market
prospects arise, recalling the necessity of complementing humanitarian
aid with development aid to succeed in achieving long-term objectives.
This may however not be politically viable in a context where refugees
are considered as temporary.