PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • TABELLINI Marco (Harvard University): Legislators’ Response to Changes in the Electorate: The Great Migration and Civil Rights (travail conjoint avec Alvaro Calderon et Vasiliki Fouka)

Between 1940 and 1970, during the second Great Migration, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the United States. In this period, blacks were often excluded from the political process in the South, but were eligible to vote in the North. We study how, by changing the composition and the preferences of the northern electorate, the Great Migration affected both voters’ demand for racial equality and legislators’ support for civil rights legislation. We predict black inflows by interacting historical settlements of southern born blacks across northern counties with the differential rate of black emigration from different southern states after 1940. We find that black in-migration increased the Democratic vote share and encouraged grassroots activism, not only among black but also, and crucially, among white voters. In turn, Congress members representing areas more exposed to black inflows became increasingly supportive of civil rights. They were not only more likely to vote in favor of pro-civil rights bills, but also more willing to take direct actions, such as signing discharge petitions, to promote racial equality. Investigating the mechanisms, we document that both “between” and “within” party changes contributed to the shift in the position of northern legislators on civil rights. Taken together, our findings suggest that the Great Migration played an important role in the development and success of the civil rights movement.

PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • BATISTA Catia (Nova School of Business and Economics): Testing Classic Theories of Migration in the Lab (travail conjoint avec David McKenzie).

We use incentivized laboratory experiments to investigate how potential migrants make decisions between working in different destinations in order to test the predictions of different classic theories of migration. We test theories of income maximization, migrant skill-selection, and multi-destination choice and how the predictions and behavior under these theories vary as we vary migration costs, liquidity constraints, risk, social benefits, and incomplete information. We show how the basic income maximization model of migration with selection on observed and unobserved skills leads to a much higher migration rate and more negative skill-selection than is obtained when migration decisions take place under more realistic assumptions. Second, we find evidence of a home bias, where simply labelling a destination as “home” causes more people to choose that location. Thirdly, we investigate whether the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) assumption holds. We find it holds for most people when decisions just involve wages, costs, and liquidity constraints. However, once we add a risk of unemployment and incomplete information, IIA no longer holds for about 20 percent of our sample.

  • TURATI Riccardo (UCLouvain): Network-based Connectedness and the Diffusion of Cultural Traits 

This paper empirically investigates the impact of network-based connectedness on the diffusion of cultural traits. Using Gallup World Poll data over 148 countries on individual connectedness, opinions and beliefs, we find that individuals who have a connection abroad are associated with higher levels of social behavior, religiosity and gender-egalitarian attitudes. The effect is stronger among individuals living in regions characterized by low levels of religiosity and gender-egalitarian views, suggesting that migration favors cultural convergence across regions along those traits. The effects are robust to connectedness diffusion, and country and individual openness towards foreign countries. The cultural effects of connectedness on each trait are stronger among less educated individuals rather then highly educated ones. The effects are also robust to a set of propensity score matching and covariates matching techniques, undermining the potential threat driven by selection into connectedness by observables. Statistical tests are carefully implemented to quantify the selection threat driven by unobserved factors, which appears negligible. The effects are sizeable on social behavior and gender-egalitarian views, particularly on low educated individuals, once simulations based on estimated coefficients are performed. Although robust, the pro-religiosity effect of connectedness is limited and negligible.

PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • FERNÁNDEZ-HUERTAS MORAGA Jesús (Université Carlos III Madrid): Processing time and the location choice of asylum seekers across European countries (travail conjoint avec Simone Bertoli et Herbert Brücker)

More than 3 million asylum seekers arrived into Europe between 2014 and 2016. We analyze the role of policy measures taken at destination on the choices of asylum seekers. We bring to the data a gravity equation that reflects the different types of uncertainty that asylum seekers face, notably concerning the chances of obtaining refugee protection, the processing time and the risk of repatriation. These policy measures contributed to shape the distribution of asylum seekers across European countries, and produced heterogeneous effects across different origin countries. German efforts to expand their processing capacity produced a significant increase in applications from origins with high recognition rates, which were mostly diverted away from Sweden.

  • VALETTE Jérôme (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne): Border Apprehensions, Salience of Hispanic Identity and Sentences in the US Federal Criminal Justice System (travail conjoint avec Simone Bertoli et Morgane Laouenan)

This paper provides econometric evidence that Hispanic citizens receive significantly harsher sentences in the US Federal Criminal Justice System when there is an increase in the number of illegal aliens that are apprehended along the US-Mexico border. Conversely, sentences that Hispanic immigrants receive remain unaffected. We interpret that this effect is due to the induced increase in the salience of Hispanic ethnic identity (in response to an increase in media attention and public interest towards im migration), which is often associated with negative stereotypes such as a propensity to commit crimes. This blurs the distinction between Hispanics citizens and immigrants, thus eroding the usual differential in sentences between the two groups. The proposed interpretation is corroborated by the analysis of the heterogeneity of the results along several dimensions. Notably, the estimated effect is at play when judges have fewer elements to base their decisions and the increase in sentence length is such that it remains within the US Sentencing Commission guideline prescribed range.

Campus Condorcet, Centre des colloques, Salle 3.03
  • BERTOLI Simone (Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, CERDI, IZA, ICM):Co-residence patterns of the individuals left behind by Mexican migrants: evidence and analytical implications (travail conjoint avec Elsa Gautrain et Elie Murard)

The occurrence of an international migration episode is often associated with a change in the composition of the household of origin of the migrants. We draw on data from Mexico to show how these variations in co-residence choices have relevant implications for the analysis of the consequences of migration on the individuals left behind. The large-scale survey connected to the 2010 Census, which includes retrospective questions on migration, reveals that the wives and their children left behind by a male migrant very often start co-residing with their parents after the departure of the husband.These changes in household composition interfere with the ability of the survey to enumerate past migration episodes. This, in turn, entails that the survey misses a large number of women and children left behind by the migrants, which differ along relevant observable characteristics from those that are captured in the data.

  • LOCHMANN Alexia (PSE, Université Paris 1-Panthéon Sorbonne, ICM): Fake news and cultural identity. Evidence from South Tyrol in 1939 (travail conjoint avec Max Viskanic)

This research paper aims at finding answers to the question of whether fake news can provoke an immediate response in the formation or manifestation of cultural preferences of the affected population. For this purpose, we carry out an event study, relying on a regression discontinuity design, to study whether parents changed the naming patterns of their newborn children following the spread of fake news around possible forced emigration. In 1939, the so-called “South Tyrol Option Agreement” between Mussolini and Hitler asked all German-speaking heads of households in Northern Italy to decide whether to stay in their homeland and accept the inevitable italianization, or to emigrate to Germany and preserve their cultural identity. The announcement of the policy was overshadowed by a series of fake news, historically named "Sicilian Legend", according to which individuals who did not want to emigrate to Germany would be deported to the southernmost regions of Italy. This research paper shows that the fake news around the possible implications of the policy shook the affected population to the point of pushing them to strengthen their cultural identity. We analyze possible channels of the observed change in naming patterns and find the channel of strengthened cultural identity to be the most important one, as compared to activated cultural identity and a change in incentives. Furthermore, we look at possible heterogeneity of effects and find similar effects for male and female children, but a more pronounced effect for later born children as compared to first born children.

  • SOLIGNAC Matthieu (Université de Bordeaux, CNRS, Comptrasec ; Ined; ICM): Homeownership of immigrants in France: selection effects related to international migration flows (travail conjoint avec Laurent Gobillon).

We investigate the difference in homeownership rates between natives and first-generation immigrants in France, and how this difference evolves over the 1975–1999 period, by using a large longitudinal dataset. We find that the homeownership gap is large and has remained steady. Entries into the territory have a large negative effect on the evolution of homeownership rates for immigrants. Although entrants have on average better education than people staying in the territory for the entire period (i.e. stayers), they are younger and thus at an earlier stage in the wealth accumulation process. They are also located in large cities, where the homeownership rate is lower, and the returns to their characteristics are lower than those for stayers. Leavers have a positive effect on the evolution of homeownership rates for immigrants because they have a low access to homeownership and they exit the country. But this effect is only one-fifth that of entrants. For stayers, we show that returns to characteristics change in favor of immigrants, which is consistent with assimilation theories. However, among stayers who access homeownership, immigrants end up in owned dwellings that are of lesser quality than natives.

  • TOMA Sorana (ENSAE, ICM): Social Position and Migrant Social Capital in International Migration from Africa to Europe (travail conjoint avec Mao-Mei Liu).

Social capital has been conceptualized as a mechanism through which socioeconomic inequalities are reinforced, and a growing body of labor market, education and health studies support this. In contrast, some migration scholars believe that migrant social capital can potentially broaden access to migration, but few empirical studies exist. We build on prior work by Nan Lin and Sandra Smith to examine individuals’ access, mobilization, and returns to social capital and how these are associated with their social position.  Using retrospective data from the Migration between Africa and Europe (MAFE) project, we study how individual social capital is stratified for migration to Europe from DR Congo, Ghana and Senegal. Our results suggest that access, mobilization and returns to social capital are deeply and differently stratified by social position. While high-status individuals have greater access to migrant networks, low-status prospective migrants are more dependent on migrant social capital to migrate and are more likely to mobilize it to help finance the trip.

  • WREN-LEWIS Liam (PSE/INRA, ICM): Impacts of diversity in a national volunteering program

This project aims to understand the impact of exposure to diversity over several months among youth who have volunteered for "service civique".  By randomizing who volunteers are paired with, we will be able to measure the impact of spending time working with people from different backgrounds across a range of dimensions including immigration history, education level and gender. We will also explore whether pairings can have an impact on outcomes such as civic participation, political preferences or economic integration.


PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • GATHMANN Christina (Heidelberg University): Marginal Returns to Citizenship and Skill Development

We estimate the marginal returns to citizenship on skill development for children of immigrants. Two national reforms in 1991 and 2000 introduced birthright citizenship (and an associated transitional rule) for second-generation immigrants and laid out eligibility criteria for naturalization for first generation immigrants in Germany. We show substantial heterogeneity in returns to citizenship with the highest returns for those with the highest resistance to take-up. We also find that immigrant children born in Germany are both more likely to obtain a German passport and have higher returns from citizenship. Better language skills further translate into a lower probability of grade retention, whereas other skills (like in math or natural science) and school performance (grades or school track) seem to be una_ected. Policy simulations suggest that expanding eligibility for birthright citizenship would improve educational outcomes by less than expanding overall take-up.

  • LUKSIC Juan (PSE): Can immigration affect students skills-based neighborhood effect? Lessons from the recent migratory wave in Chile

This paper evaluates how much a child can learn in a neighborhood before and after foreign students arrive using the recent migratory phenomenon in Chile. I do so by estimating municipality's causal effect on children's skills rank at 4th grade (10 years old) conditional on the mother education rank in two windows: before and after the large wave of immigrants. Following Chetty and Hendren (2018) methodology I estimate each municipality' effect using a fixed effect regression model identified by students who move across municipalities at different ages. I found that on average there is no effect of foreign students on municipality effect. Nevertheless, it seems that when immigration is higher than a threshold there is a negative effect.

SÉANCE ANNULÉE // 16:30-19:00
PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • BEINE Michel (University of Luxembourg): Assessing the Role of Immigration Policy for Foreign Students: the Case of Campus France (travail conjoint avec Lionel Ragot)

This paper studies the intended and unintended effects of a specific policy conducted by the French Government around 2006 aiming at boosting the number of foreign stu- dents admitted in French universities. The Campus France program aimed at facili- tating the application process of foreign candidates from some particular countries and applying in specific universities. We develop a small theoretical model that allows for the existence of capacity constraints in order to analyse the potential effects of such a policy in terms of student inflows and in terms of selection. Using a Diff-in-Diff-in-Diff approach, we test the impact of Campus France on the magnitude of inflows. We pay attention in terms of heterogeneity of these effects across types of universities. We find that the Campus France policy led to a global increase of inflows of foreign students around 8%. The increase is concentrated on universities outside the top 150 of the Shanghai Ranking, suggesting a higher selection from better universities. We also use the CF policy as a way to test the potential crowding-out effects on native students while taking care of the usual endogeneity concerns in terms of location. We do not find any impact of crowding-out, either on native students or on foreign students coming through the traditional channel.

  • RAVALLION Martin (Georgetown University): A Market for Work Permits (travail conjoint avec Michael Lokshin)

There is a huge potential for economic development through liberalizing international migration. However, it will be politically difficult to realize that potential without some form of protection for host-country workers. The paper explores the scope for efficiently managing migration and refugees using a competitive market for work permits. Host-county workers would be granted the legal option of renting out their implicit citizenship work permits for a period of their choice, while foreigners purchase time-bound work permits. Aggregate labor supply need not rise in the host country. However, total output would rise and workers would see enhanced social protection. Simulations for the US and Mexico suggest that the new market would attract many skilled migrants, boosting GDP and reducing poverty in the US.

SÉANCE ANNULÉE // 16:30-19:00
PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • FACCHINI Giovanni (University of Nottingham)

SÉANCE ANNULÉE // 16:30-19:00
PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • SPITZER Yannay (Hebrew University of Jerusalem): Like an Ink Blot on Paper: Testing the Diffusion Hypothesis of Mass Migration, Italy 1876-1920 (travail conjoint avec Ariell Zimran)

Despite greater incentives for migration due to lower real wages, countries in southern and eastern Europe, such as Italy, were latecomers to the Age of Mass Migration relative to wealthier western countries such as Germany and Britain—a phenomenon called the delayed migration puzzle. We test the diffusion hypothesis, which argues that mass migration from the poorer countries was delayed until it was triggered by exposure to geographically expanding networks of individuals with social links to previous migrants. Focusing on post-unification Italy, we construct a comprehensive annual commune-level panel of emigration over four decades. First, we develop a new set of stylized facts on the Italian emigration that are consistent with the four main predictions of the diffusion hypothesis. Most importantly, we find that Italian mass migration to North America began in a few separate “epicenters" and expanded from there in an orderly pattern of spatial expansion over time. We then show that this pattern was the product of a mechanism in which a commune's emigration rate was affected by emigration from its neighbors—the fundamental building block of the diffusion hypothesis. These findings contribute to an important revision to the economic history of the Age of Mass Migration and advance the literature on the causes of mass migration more generally.

  • MESPLE-SOMPS Sandrine (IRD/DIAL) et NILSSON Björn (Université Paris-Sud): Role models and migration intentions, an experiment in Kita, Mali

Role models---those individuals which resemble us but have achieved more than us--- are thought to impact both our aspirations and the degree to which such aspirations are met. On the other hand, international organizations such as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the European Commission, as well as individual recipient countries, have for years attempted to influence the perceptions of migration in Sub-Saharan Africa by information campaigns.  Whatever the objectives of said campaigns, their proliferation suggests that evidence-based studies of what determines the intentions to migrate are urgently needed. In this paper, we study the impact of role models on intentions to migrate, by conducting a randomized control trial in rural areas of Kita district (Kayes region, Mali). Specifically, we show documentaries in rural villages of Mali. The documentaries portray individuals of the same sex, age group and geographical origin as our study population, and were filmed by a Malian anthropologist specialising in visual communication. Our aim is to test if such educational entertainment changes people's aspiration to migrate by getting people to change their understanding of facts and their vision of their own life.

SÉANCE ANNULÉE // 15:00-19:00
Campus Condorcet, Centre des colloques, salle 3.05


Horaires : 16:30-19:00
Lieu : PSE salle R1.09, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris
  • KARADJA Mounir (Uppsala University): Mass Migration, Cheap Labor, and Innovation (travail conjoint avec David Andersson et Erik Prawitz)

Migration is often depicted as a major problem for struggling developing countries, as they may lose valuable workers and human capital. Yet, its effects on sending regions are ambiguous and depend crucially on local market responses and migrant selection. This paper studies the effects of migration on technological innovation in sending communities during one of the largest migration episodes in human history: the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1913). Using novel historical data on Sweden, where about a quarter of its population migrated, we find that migration caused an increase in technological patents in sending municipalities. To establish causality, we use an instrumental variable design that exploits severe local growing season frost shocks to- gether with within-country travel costs to reach an emigration port. Exploring possible mechanisms, we suggest that increased labor costs, due to low-skilled emigration, in- duced technological innovation.

  • ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE): Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers (travail conjoint avec Sascha O. Becker, Irena Grosfeld, Pauline Grosjean et Nico Voigtländer)

We exploit a unique historical setting to study the long-run effects of forced migration on invest- ment in education. After World War II, the Polish borders were redrawn, resulting in large-scale migration. Poles were forced to move from the Kresy territories in the East (taken over by the USSR) and were resettled mostly to the newly acquired Western Territories, from which Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that, while there were no pre-WWII differences in education, Poles with a family history of forced mi- gration are significantly more educated today. Descendants of forced migrants have on average one extra year of schooling, driven by a higher propensity to finish secondary or higher education. This result holds when we restrict ancestral locations to a subsample around the former Kresy border and include fixed effects for the destination of migrants. As Kresy migrants were of the same ethnicity and religion as other Poles, we bypass confounding factors of other cases of forced migration. We show that labor market competition with natives and selection of migrants are also unlikely to drive our results. Survey evidence suggests that forced migration led to a shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in a mobile asset – human capital. The effects persist over three generations.

PSE salle R1.09, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris
  • ELSNER Benjamin (University College Dublin) : Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State (travail conjoint avec Arnaud Chevalier Andreas Lichter Nico Pestel)

This paper studies the impact of immigration on public policy setting. As a natural experiment, we exploit the sudden arrival of eight million forced migrants in West Germany after World War II. These migrants were on average poorer than the West German population, but unlike most international migrants they had full voting rights and were eligible for social welfare. Using panel data for West German cities and applying difference- in-differences and an instrumental variables approach, we show that local governments responded to this migration shock with selective and persistent tax raises as well as shifts in spending. In response to the inflow, farm and business owners were taxed more while residential property and wage bill taxes were left unchanged. Moreover, high-inflow cities significantly raised welfare spending while reducing spending on infrastructure and housing. Election data suggest that these policy changes were partly driven by the political influence of the immigrants: in high-inflow regions, the major parties were more likely to nominate immigrants as candidates, and a pro-immigrant party received high vote shares. We further document that this episode of mass immigration had lasting effects on people’s preferences for redistribution. In areas with larger inflows in the 1940s, people have substantially higher demand for redistribution more than 50 years later.

  • MURARD Elie (IZA Institute of Labor Economics) : Immigration and Attitudes toward Redistribution in Europe (travail conjoint avec Alberto Alesina et Hillel Rapoport)

We examine the relationship between immigration and attitudes to redistribution by assembling a new dataset of immigrant stocks at the regional level in 140 regions of 16 Western European countries. We combine census and population register records with attitudinal data from the biannual 2002-2016 rounds of the European Social Survey. We find that center and rightwing natives display lower support for redistribution when the share of immigrants in their region of residence is higher. This holds particularly in regions of countries with relatively large Welfare-States. This negative relationship between immigration and support for redistribution is robust to the inclusion of a rich set of regional and individual controls, as well as to using alternative measures of preferences for redistribution. All these effects are stronger for immigration originating from non-European countries.

Collège de France, 3 Rue d'Ulm 75005 Paris (salle de réunion du 4ème étage)
  • BEAUCHEMIN Cris (INED): Politiques migratoires et transition vers l'irrégularité: une analyse longitudinale des flux sénégalais en France, Espagne et Italie (travail conjoint avec Mateyédou Lamboni et Alain Gagnon)

La migration irrégulière constitue l’une des préoccupations majeures des politiques migratoires des pays d’Europe qui voudraient en limiter l’ampleur. Alors que le contrôle des frontières attire largement l’attention, la majorité des migrants irréguliers sont entrés en Europe en suivant les voies légales avant de basculer dans l’irrégularité (Düvell, 2011). Cette étude s’intéresse précisément à ces migrants qui, alors qu’ils étaient déjà en Europe, ont vécu une transition d’un statut régulier vers un statut irrégulier. L’article étudie les facteurs individuels et contextuels de l’irrégularisation des migrants sénégalais en Europe (France, Espagne, Italie). Il cherche notamment à tester l’hypothèse selon laquelle les politiques restrictives de migrations sont favorables à un accroissement des situations d’irrégularité parmi les migrants. L’étude repose sur des analyses longitudinales (modèles logistiques en temps discret) qui combinent les données individuelles décrivant les trajectoires de 568 migrants sénégalais enquêtés en France, Espagne et Italie (données du projet MAFE, Migrations entre l’Afrique et l’Europe) et des séries temporelles de données contextuelles économiques et politiques (issues de base de données politiques ImPol, Immigration Policy). Toutes choses égales par ailleurs, les résultats montrent que les migrants sénégalais entrés légalement en Europe ont des chances accrues de basculer dans l’irrégularité lorsque les politiques contrôlant l’entrée deviennent plus restrictives. En somme, les contrôles accrus à l’entrée créeraient un effet de trappe pour les migrants déjà installés en Europe.

  • MILLOCK Katrin (PSE) : Climate change, migration and irrigation (travail conjoint avec Théo Benonnier et Vis Taraz)

 A rapidly growing literature demonstrates that climate change will affect both international and internal migration. Earlier work has found important evidence of a climate-migration poverty trap: higher temperatures reduce agricultural yields, which in turn reduce emigration rates in low-income countries, due to liquidity constraints (Cattaneo and Peri, 2016). On the other hand, other research demonstrates that irrigation can be effective in protecting agricultural yields from high temperatures. In this paper, we explore the juxtaposition of these two facts. We test whether access to irrigation modulates the climate-migration poverty trap. Specifically, we test whether having access to irrigation makes migration less sensitive to high temperature shocks. Using a global data set on poor and middle-income countries and a fixed effects framework, we regress decadal international migration data on decadal averages of temperature and rainfall, interacted with country-level data on irrigated areas and income levels.

We also analyze urbanization rates, which we take as a proxy for rural-to-urban internal migration. Our study finds that access to irrigation significantly weakens the climate-migration poverty trap, demonstrating a potentially important protective role for irrigation in the context of climate-induced migration. Our results demonstrate that other scholars working on climate and migration should be sure to consider the role of irrigation in modulating those relationships. From a policy point of view, our results suggest that increasing access to irrigation may have spillover effects onto migration. More broadly, our results speak to the need of simultaneously considering multiple adaptive responses when analyzing environmental challenges faced in developing countries.

  • SPECIALE Biagio (PSE/Paris 1)‘Dis-moi ce que tu manges et je te dirai qui tu es’’. Intégration des migrants et big data sur la consommation alimentaire (travail conjoint avec Simone Bertoli, Fosca Giannotti, Riccardo Guidotti, Dino Pedreschi et Hillel Rapoport)

Nous utilisons des données venant d’une des plus grandes chaînes de supermarché d’Italie afin d’obtenir des informations sur les achats réalisés entre janvier 2007 et décembre 2015 par les consommateurs détenteurs de la carte de fidélité. Lors de la demande d’obtention de la carte, les consommateurs doivent fournir le codice fiscale (numéro d’identification fiscal) qui nous permet de connaître le pays de naissance des personnes d’origine étrangère. Ces derniers, originaires de plus de 200 pays, représentent environ 50000 personnes parmi les 1.1 millions de consommateurs de la base de données. Si on considère le temps depuis l’adhésion au système de fidélité comme étant variable proxy du temps depuis l’immigration, nous constatons que le comportement des consommateurs immigrés a tendance à converger avec le temps vers celui des natifs et qu’il y a une augmentation de la consommation de produits typiques italiens.

  • UKRAYINCHUK Nadiya (Université de Lille) : Le rôle du capital humain pré-migratoire dans l’intégration économique des immigrés en France: Compétences métier vs compétences transversales (travail conjoint avec Xavier Chojnicki)

L’objectif de cet article est de différencier le rôle joué par les compétences transversales et les compétences métier, accumulées à l’étranger, sur les chances d’accéder à un emploi en France, ainsi que sur l’adéquation de cet emploi et du niveau de salaire avec les compétences pré-migratoires. Pour quantifier l’impact de la transférabilité du capital humain, nous utilisons les données de l’enquête Trajectoires et Origines (2008). Nous montrons que le capital humain pré-migratoire joue un rôle important aussi bien s’agissant des chances d’accès à un emploi, que pour le maintien ou la progression dans la position socio-professionnelle, ainsi que pour la rémunération des immigrés. En utilisant plusieurs indicateurs d’intégration des immigrés, quantitatifs et qualitatifs, nous montrons qu’à l’exception des compétences linguistiques, les autres compétences transversales ne semblent pas jouer le rôle attendu en tant que vecteur d’intégration. A l’inverse, les compétences métier permettent une meilleure intégration économique. Par ailleurs, nous mettons en évidence une persistance temporelle des effets négatifs d’un faible niveau de transférabilité des compétences métier sur l’intégration économique, avec des écarts qui tendent à augmenter au cours du temps.

PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • EDO Anthony (CEPII): The Impact of Immigration on Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Algerian Independence War

This paper investigates the dynamics of wage adjustment to an exogenous increase in labor supply exploiting the sudden and unexpected inflow of repatriates to France resulting from Algerian independence in 1962. I measure the impact of this particular supply shift on the average wage of pre-existing native workers across French regions between 1962 and 1976. I find that regional wages decreased between 1962 and 1968, before returning to their pre-shock level 15 years after. I also investigate the dynamics of skill-specific wages in response to the regional penetration of repatriates and find that the wages of high and low educated native workers declined initially but fully recovered by 1976.

  • MAYDA Anna Maria (Georgetown University): The Labor Market Impact of Refugees: Evidence from the U.S. Resettlement Program (travail conjoint avec Chris Parsons, Giovanni Peri et Mathis Wagner)

In this paper, we examine the long-term impact of refugees on the U.S. labor market over the period 1980-2010. Drawing upon aggregated individual level administrative data, we exploit the exogenous assignment of refugees across commuting zones within the United States, by focusing on those refugee cases without U.S. ties. The distribution of these refugees depends upon resettlement agencies and is mainly driven by the availability of accommodation and other (for example medical) needs – most importantly, it is independent of the choice of refugees. Nevertheless, we use matching techniques to identify suitable counterfactual observations for those commuting zones that receive a significant number of refugees as a share of the population. Accounting for all of the recent innovations in the literature, we do not find any significant long-term labor market impact of refugees. Our results provide robust causal evidence that there is no adverse long-run impact of refugees on the U.S. labor market.

PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • ANELLI Massimo (Bocconi University): Youth Drain, Entrepreneurship and Innovation (travail conjoint avec Gaetano Basso, Giuseppe Ippedico et Giovanni Peri)

Business dynamism and innovation are often embodied in young generations who bring new ideas and transform the productive and organizational structure of companies. What happens to an economy if the cohort of young people shrinks significantly in size? In this paper we exploit a sudden increase in emigration of young Italians during the period 2010-2015 and analyze its effects on firm creation and innovation. As the decision to emigrate is partly driven by local economic conditions, we isolate its ``pull-driven'' component to reduce endogeneity and omitted variable issues. We combine such variation with detailed firm-level data on the universe of Italian firms and find that youth emigration is associated with lower firm creation, fewer innovative start-ups and a decline in skill intensity in the local economy.

  • OREFICE Gianluca (CEPII): Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching (travail conjoint avec Giovanni Peri).

The matching between firm and workers is an important mechanism affecting average productivity and its dispersion. Denser and more diversified labor markets may encourage positive assortative matching which in turn increases average productivity, average wages and profits in the area. We think of immigration as increasing the range of skills and the "thickness" of local labor markets. This may increase the returns to doing screening for firms, which increases the extent of positive assortative matching. Using French matched employer-employee (DADS) data we document a novel fact about the hiring decision of French firms. Positive changes in the local supply of immigrant workers improves the matching between workers and firms captured by a stronger rank correlation in the firm-worker types. We show that this association may be causal. This is a further channel through which immigrants may be beneficial to local productivity and it contributes to explain the lack of negative effects from immigration on wage of natives.

PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • MERCIER Marion (Université Paris-Dauphine): The joint dynamics of emigration and conflict: From peace-wrecking to peace-building diasporas (travail conjoint avec Fabio Mariani et Thierry Verdier)

Qualitative literature shows that many abroad-living communities of migrants have played a decisive role in conflicts occurring in their home country, and that the peace-wrecking or peace-building nature of their role has evolved over time. Based on country-level panel data, we empirically investigate the dynamic relationship between emigration and conflict in migrants’ country of origin. While country trajectories are diverse, we emphasize a recurrent pattern where the initially positive correlation between emigration and violence becomes negative over time. Evidence of a changing dynamic relationship between emigration and conflict, based on OLS and on a gravity-based instrumentation strategy, consistently suggest that initially peace-wrecking emigration tends to become peace-building. We build a two-group theoretical model of conflict allowing migrants to interact with the home economy, in order to enlighten these empirical results. While migrants’ involvement in the conflict of their home country is likely to participate to violence escalation in a static framework, we find that, over time, the evolution of the number and characteristics of emigrants can make abroad-living communities become a peace-building force for the origin country.

  • SEROR Marlon (University of Bristol): Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China (travail conjoint avec Clement Imbert et Yifan Zhang)

This paper provides causal empirical evidence that rural-urban migration lowers urban firm productivity in developing countries. We use longitudinal data on Chinese manufacturing firms between 2001 and 2006, and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration due to agricultural price shocks for identification. We find that following a migrant inflow, labor costs decline and employment grows. Within firm, labor productivity decreases sharply and remains low in the longer run. Within industry and location, it is low-productivity firms that grow the most, so that aggregate labor productivity falls even faster. Since migrants favor high-productivity destinations, migration strongly equalizes factor productivity across locations.

PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
  • ATKIN David (MIT): How Do We Choose Our Identity? A Revealed Preference Approach Using Food Consumption (travail conjoint avec Moses Shayo et Eve Sihra)

Are identities fungible? How do people come to identify with specific groups? This paper proposes a revealed preference approach, using food consumption to uncover identity choices. We focus on ethnic and religious identities in India. We first show that consumption of identity goods (e.g. beef and pork) responds systematically to forces suggested by social identity research: group status and group salience, with the latter proxied by Hindu-Muslim violence. Moreover, identity choices respond to the market cost of following the group’s prescribed behaviors. We propose and estimate an appropriately modified demand system. Using these estimates, we quantify the identity changes that followed India’s 1991 economic reforms, and estimate the relative importance of the forces above in shaping identities. While conflict and status have been at the focus of social identity research in recent decades, our results indicate that costs play a dominant role.

  • SPECIALE Biagio (PSE/Paris 1): Tell me what you eat, I will tell you who you are: Migrants’ Integration and Big Food Data (travail conjoint avec Hillel Rapoport, Simone Bertoli, Fosca Giannotti, Riccardo Guidotti et Dino Predreschi)
9:30-17:30, JASI – PSE – ICM Dynamics Workshop on the Economics of Immigration
Maison des Sciences Economiques, 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital 75013 Paris (salle du 6ème étage)

Voici le programme: JASI ICM Workshop on immigration

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