Séminaire DYNAMICS (PSE, CEPII, ICM)
Horaires : 16:30-19:00
Lieu : PSE salle R1.09, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris
- KARADJA Mounir (Uppsala University): Mass Migration, Cheap Labor, and Innovation (travail conjoint avec David Andersson et Erik Prawitz)
Migration is often depicted as a major problem for struggling developing countries, as they may lose valuable workers and human capital. Yet, its effects on sending regions are ambiguous and depend crucially on local market responses and migrant selection. This paper studies the effects of migration on technological innovation in sending communities during one of the largest migration episodes in human history: the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1913). Using novel historical data on Sweden, where about a quarter of its population migrated, we find that migration caused an increase in technological patents in sending municipalities. To establish causality, we use an instrumental variable design that exploits severe local growing season frost shocks to- gether with within-country travel costs to reach an emigration port. Exploring possible mechanisms, we suggest that increased labor costs, due to low-skilled emigration, in- duced technological innovation.
- ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina (PSE): Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers (travail conjoint avec Sascha O. Becker, Irena Grosfeld, Pauline Grosjean et Nico Voigtländer)
We exploit a unique historical setting to study the long-run effects of forced migration on invest- ment in education. After World War II, the Polish borders were redrawn, resulting in large-scale migration. Poles were forced to move from the Kresy territories in the East (taken over by the USSR) and were resettled mostly to the newly acquired Western Territories, from which Germans were expelled. We combine historical censuses with newly collected survey data to show that, while there were no pre-WWII differences in education, Poles with a family history of forced mi- gration are significantly more educated today. Descendants of forced migrants have on average one extra year of schooling, driven by a higher propensity to finish secondary or higher education. This result holds when we restrict ancestral locations to a subsample around the former Kresy border and include fixed effects for the destination of migrants. As Kresy migrants were of the same ethnicity and religion as other Poles, we bypass confounding factors of other cases of forced migration. We show that labor market competition with natives and selection of migrants are also unlikely to drive our results. Survey evidence suggests that forced migration led to a shift in preferences, away from material possessions and towards investment in a mobile asset – human capital. The effects persist over three generations.
PSE salle R1.09, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris
- ELSNER Benjamin (University College Dublin) : Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State (travail conjoint avec Arnaud Chevalier Andreas Lichter Nico Pestel)
This paper studies the impact of immigration on public policy setting. As a natural experiment, we exploit the sudden arrival of eight million forced migrants in West Germany after World War II. These migrants were on average poorer than the West German population, but unlike most international migrants they had full voting rights and were eligible for social welfare. Using panel data for West German cities and applying difference- in-differences and an instrumental variables approach, we show that local governments responded to this migration shock with selective and persistent tax raises as well as shifts in spending. In response to the inflow, farm and business owners were taxed more while residential property and wage bill taxes were left unchanged. Moreover, high-inflow cities significantly raised welfare spending while reducing spending on infrastructure and housing. Election data suggest that these policy changes were partly driven by the political influence of the immigrants: in high-inflow regions, the major parties were more likely to nominate immigrants as candidates, and a pro-immigrant party received high vote shares. We further document that this episode of mass immigration had lasting effects on people’s preferences for redistribution. In areas with larger inflows in the 1940s, people have substantially higher demand for redistribution more than 50 years later.
- MURARD Elie (IZA Institute of Labor Economics) : Immigration and Attitudes toward Redistribution in Europe (travail conjoint avec Alberto Alesina et Hillel Rapoport)
We examine the relationship between immigration and attitudes to redistribution by assembling a new dataset of immigrant stocks at the regional level in 140 regions of 16 Western European countries. We combine census and population register records with attitudinal data from the biannual 2002-2016 rounds of the European Social Survey. We find that center and rightwing natives display lower support for redistribution when the share of immigrants in their region of residence is higher. This holds particularly in regions of countries with relatively large Welfare-States. This negative relationship between immigration and support for redistribution is robust to the inclusion of a rich set of regional and individual controls, as well as to using alternative measures of preferences for redistribution. All these effects are stronger for immigration originating from non-European countries.
Collège de France, 3 Rue d'Ulm 75005 Paris (salle de réunion du 4ème étage)
- BEAUCHEMIN Cris (INED): Politiques migratoires et transition vers l'irrégularité: une analyse longitudinale des flux sénégalais en France, Espagne et Italie (travail conjoint avec Mateyédou Lamboni et Alain Gagnon)
La migration irrégulière constitue l’une des préoccupations majeures des politiques migratoires des pays d’Europe qui voudraient en limiter l’ampleur. Alors que le contrôle des frontières attire largement l’attention, la majorité des migrants irréguliers sont entrés en Europe en suivant les voies légales avant de basculer dans l’irrégularité (Düvell, 2011). Cette étude s’intéresse précisément à ces migrants qui, alors qu’ils étaient déjà en Europe, ont vécu une transition d’un statut régulier vers un statut irrégulier. L’article étudie les facteurs individuels et contextuels de l’irrégularisation des migrants sénégalais en Europe (France, Espagne, Italie). Il cherche notamment à tester l’hypothèse selon laquelle les politiques restrictives de migrations sont favorables à un accroissement des situations d’irrégularité parmi les migrants. L’étude repose sur des analyses longitudinales (modèles logistiques en temps discret) qui combinent les données individuelles décrivant les trajectoires de 568 migrants sénégalais enquêtés en France, Espagne et Italie (données du projet MAFE, Migrations entre l’Afrique et l’Europe) et des séries temporelles de données contextuelles économiques et politiques (issues de base de données politiques ImPol, Immigration Policy). Toutes choses égales par ailleurs, les résultats montrent que les migrants sénégalais entrés légalement en Europe ont des chances accrues de basculer dans l’irrégularité lorsque les politiques contrôlant l’entrée deviennent plus restrictives. En somme, les contrôles accrus à l’entrée créeraient un effet de trappe pour les migrants déjà installés en Europe.
- MILLOCK Katrin (PSE) : Climate change, migration and irrigation (travail conjoint avec Théo Benonnier et Vis Taraz)
A rapidly growing literature demonstrates that climate change will affect both international and internal migration. Earlier work has found important evidence of a climate-migration poverty trap: higher temperatures reduce agricultural yields, which in turn reduce emigration rates in low-income countries, due to liquidity constraints (Cattaneo and Peri, 2016). On the other hand, other research demonstrates that irrigation can be effective in protecting agricultural yields from high temperatures. In this paper, we explore the juxtaposition of these two facts. We test whether access to irrigation modulates the climate-migration poverty trap. Specifically, we test whether having access to irrigation makes migration less sensitive to high temperature shocks. Using a global data set on poor and middle-income countries and a fixed effects framework, we regress decadal international migration data on decadal averages of temperature and rainfall, interacted with country-level data on irrigated areas and income levels.
We also analyze urbanization rates, which we take as a proxy for rural-to-urban internal migration. Our study finds that access to irrigation significantly weakens the climate-migration poverty trap, demonstrating a potentially important protective role for irrigation in the context of climate-induced migration. Our results demonstrate that other scholars working on climate and migration should be sure to consider the role of irrigation in modulating those relationships. From a policy point of view, our results suggest that increasing access to irrigation may have spillover effects onto migration. More broadly, our results speak to the need of simultaneously considering multiple adaptive responses when analyzing environmental challenges faced in developing countries.
- SPECIALE Biagio (PSE/Paris 1): ‘‘Dis-moi ce que tu manges et je te dirai qui tu es’’. Intégration des migrants et big data sur la consommation alimentaire (travail conjoint avec Simone Bertoli, Fosca Giannotti, Riccardo Guidotti, Dino Pedreschi et Hillel Rapoport)
Nous utilisons des données venant d’une des plus grandes chaînes de supermarché d’Italie afin d’obtenir des informations sur les achats réalisés entre janvier 2007 et décembre 2015 par les consommateurs détenteurs de la carte de fidélité. Lors de la demande d’obtention de la carte, les consommateurs doivent fournir le codice fiscale (numéro d’identification fiscal) qui nous permet de connaître le pays de naissance des personnes d’origine étrangère. Ces derniers, originaires de plus de 200 pays, représentent environ 50000 personnes parmi les 1.1 millions de consommateurs de la base de données. Si on considère le temps depuis l’adhésion au système de fidélité comme étant variable proxy du temps depuis l’immigration, nous constatons que le comportement des consommateurs immigrés a tendance à converger avec le temps vers celui des natifs et qu’il y a une augmentation de la consommation de produits typiques italiens.
- UKRAYINCHUK Nadiya (Université de Lille) : Le rôle du capital humain pré-migratoire dans l’intégration économique des immigrés en France: Compétences métier vs compétences transversales (travail conjoint avec Xavier Chojnicki)
L’objectif de cet article est de différencier le rôle joué par les compétences transversales et les compétences métier, accumulées à l’étranger, sur les chances d’accéder à un emploi en France, ainsi que sur l’adéquation de cet emploi et du niveau de salaire avec les compétences pré-migratoires. Pour quantifier l’impact de la transférabilité du capital humain, nous utilisons les données de l’enquête Trajectoires et Origines (2008). Nous montrons que le capital humain pré-migratoire joue un rôle important aussi bien s’agissant des chances d’accès à un emploi, que pour le maintien ou la progression dans la position socio-professionnelle, ainsi que pour la rémunération des immigrés. En utilisant plusieurs indicateurs d’intégration des immigrés, quantitatifs et qualitatifs, nous montrons qu’à l’exception des compétences linguistiques, les autres compétences transversales ne semblent pas jouer le rôle attendu en tant que vecteur d’intégration. A l’inverse, les compétences métier permettent une meilleure intégration économique. Par ailleurs, nous mettons en évidence une persistance temporelle des effets négatifs d’un faible niveau de transférabilité des compétences métier sur l’intégration économique, avec des écarts qui tendent à augmenter au cours du temps.
PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
- EDO Anthony (CEPII): The Impact of Immigration on Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Algerian Independence War
This paper investigates the dynamics of wage adjustment to an exogenous increase in labor supply exploiting the sudden and unexpected inflow of repatriates to France resulting from Algerian independence in 1962. I measure the impact of this particular supply shift on the average wage of pre-existing native workers across French regions between 1962 and 1976. I find that regional wages decreased between 1962 and 1968, before returning to their pre-shock level 15 years after. I also investigate the dynamics of skill-specific wages in response to the regional penetration of repatriates and find that the wages of high and low educated native workers declined initially but fully recovered by 1976.
- MAYDA Anna Maria (Georgetown University): The Labor Market Impact of Refugees: Evidence from the U.S. Resettlement Program (travail conjoint avec Chris Parsons, Giovanni Peri et Mathis Wagner)
In this paper, we examine the long-term impact of refugees on the U.S. labor market over the period 1980-2010. Drawing upon aggregated individual level administrative data, we exploit the exogenous assignment of refugees across commuting zones within the United States, by focusing on those refugee cases without U.S. ties. The distribution of these refugees depends upon resettlement agencies and is mainly driven by the availability of accommodation and other (for example medical) needs – most importantly, it is independent of the choice of refugees. Nevertheless, we use matching techniques to identify suitable counterfactual observations for those commuting zones that receive a significant number of refugees as a share of the population. Accounting for all of the recent innovations in the literature, we do not find any significant long-term labor market impact of refugees. Our results provide robust causal evidence that there is no adverse long-run impact of refugees on the U.S. labor market.
PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
- ANELLI Massimo (Bocconi University): Youth Drain, Entrepreneurship and Innovation (travail conjoint avec Gaetano Basso, Giuseppe Ippedico et Giovanni Peri)
Business dynamism and innovation are often embodied in young generations who bring new ideas and transform the productive and organizational structure of companies. What happens to an economy if the cohort of young people shrinks significantly in size? In this paper we exploit a sudden increase in emigration of young Italians during the period 2010-2015 and analyze its effects on firm creation and innovation. As the decision to emigrate is partly driven by local economic conditions, we isolate its ``pull-driven'' component to reduce endogeneity and omitted variable issues. We combine such variation with detailed firm-level data on the universe of Italian firms and find that youth emigration is associated with lower firm creation, fewer innovative start-ups and a decline in skill intensity in the local economy.
- OREFICE Gianluca (CEPII): Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching (travail conjoint avec Giovanni Peri).
The matching between firm and workers is an important mechanism affecting average productivity and its dispersion. Denser and more diversified labor markets may encourage positive assortative matching which in turn increases average productivity, average wages and profits in the area. We think of immigration as increasing the range of skills and the "thickness" of local labor markets. This may increase the returns to doing screening for firms, which increases the extent of positive assortative matching. Using French matched employer-employee (DADS) data we document a novel fact about the hiring decision of French firms. Positive changes in the local supply of immigrant workers improves the matching between workers and firms captured by a stronger rank correlation in the firm-worker types. We show that this association may be causal. This is a further channel through which immigrants may be beneficial to local productivity and it contributes to explain the lack of negative effects from immigration on wage of natives.
PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
- BATISTA Catia (Nova School of Business and Economics): Testing Classic Theories of Migration in the lab (travail conjoint avec David McKenzie)
We use incentivized laboratory experiments to investigate how potential migrants make decisions between working in different destinations in order to test the predictions of different classic theories of migration. We test theories of income maximization, migrant skill-selection, and multi-destination choice and how the predictions and behavior under these theories vary as we vary migration costs, liquidity constraints, risk, social benefits, and incomplete information. We show how the basic income maximization model of migration with selection on observed and unobserved skills leads to a much higher migration rate and more negative skill-selection than is obtained when migration decisions take place under more realistic assumptions. Second, we find evidence of a home bias, where simply labelling a destination as “home” causes more people to choose that location. Thirdly, we investigate whether the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) assumption holds. We find it holds for most people when decisions just involve wages, costs, and liquidity constraints. However, once we add a risk of unemployment and incomplete information, IIA no longer holds for about 20 percent of our sample.
- MERCIER Marion (Université Paris-Dauphine): The joint dynamics of emigration and conflict: From peace-wrecking to peace-building diasporas (travail conjoint avec Fabio Mariani et Thierry Verdier)
Qualitative literature shows that many abroad-living communities of migrants have played a decisive role in conflicts occurring in their home country, and that the peace-wrecking or peace-building nature of their role has evolved over time. Based on country-level panel data, we empirically investigate the dynamic relationship between emigration and conflict in migrants’ country of origin. While country trajectories are diverse, we emphasize a recurrent pattern where the initially positive correlation between emigration and violence becomes negative over time. Evidence of a changing dynamic relationship between emigration and conflict, based on OLS and on a gravity-based instrumentation strategy, consistently suggest that initially peace-wrecking emigration tends to become peace-building. We build a two-group theoretical model of conflict allowing migrants to interact with the home economy, in order to enlighten these empirical results. While migrants’ involvement in the conflict of their home country is likely to participate to violence escalation in a static framework, we find that, over time, the evolution of the number and characteristics of emigrants can make abroad-living communities become a peace-building force for the origin country.
PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
- ATKIN David (MIT): How Do We Choose Our Identity? A Revealed Preference Approach Using Food Consumption (travail conjoint avec Moses Shayo et Eve Sihra)
Are identities fungible? How do people come to identify with specific groups? This paper proposes a revealed preference approach, using food consumption to uncover identity choices. We focus on ethnic and religious identities in India. We first show that consumption of identity goods (e.g. beef and pork) responds systematically to forces suggested by social identity research: group status and group salience, with the latter proxied by Hindu-Muslim violence. Moreover, identity choices respond to the market cost of following the group’s prescribed behaviors. We propose and estimate an appropriately modified demand system. Using these estimates, we quantify the identity changes that followed India’s 1991 economic reforms, and estimate the relative importance of the forces above in shaping identities. While conflict and status have been at the focus of social identity research in recent decades, our results indicate that costs play a dominant role.
- SPECIALE Biagio (PSE/Paris 1): Tell me what you eat, I will tell you who you are: Migrants’ Integration and Big Food Data (travail conjoint avec Hillel Rapoport, Simone Bertoli, Fosca Giannotti, Riccardo Guidotti et Dino Predreschi)
PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09
- TABELLINI Marco (Harvard University)